President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but as he prepares to take office, peace seems as elusive as ever.
Moscow and Kyiv are seeking battlefield gains to strengthen their negotiating positions ahead of any prospective talks to end the 3-year-old war.
In the past year, Russian troops have slowly but steadily advancing through Ukrainian defenses, seeking to establish full control of the four regions in the east and south that Moscow illegally annexed early in the war but never completely captured. It's also launching waves of missiles and drones to try to cripple Ukraine's energy network and other vital infrastructure.
Ukraine, in turn, has tried to secure and extend its incursion into Russia's Kursk region. Kyiv's missiles and drones also have struck Russian oil facilities and other key targets important for Moscow's war machine.
Both sides have taken tough negotiating postures that leave little room for compromise.
Trump, who vowed during his campaign to settle the war in 24 hours, changed that time frame earlier this month, voicing hope that peace could be negotiated in six months. His nominee for envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, says a deal could be brokered in 100 days.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared Moscow's readiness for talks but emphasized that any peace deal should respect the "realities on the ground," a not-so- subtle way of saying it must take into account Russia's land gains.
He emphasized in June that Ukraine must also renounce its NATO bid and fully withdraw its forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — the regions Russia annexed in September 2022 — demands that Ukraine and the West have rejected. Moscow also wants the West to lift its sanctions that has limited Moscow's access to global markets and dealt a heavy blow to Russia's economy.
Massive military spending has bolstered Russian economic output that grew by nearly 4% last year, but the weakening ruble and labor shortages fueled high inflation and increasingly destabilized the economy. Last week, President Joe Biden sharpened the pain for Moscow by expanding sanctions on Russia's vital energy sector, including its shadow shipping fleet used to bypass earlier restrictions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's initial "peace formula" demanded Russia's full withdrawal from all occupied territories, but he later softened his position as Moscow continued to make gains, and he is no longer making that retreat a condition for talks. Zelenskyy has faced reluctance from some allies to offer Kyiv quick membership in NATO, but he insists on strong security guarantees from the U.S. and other Western partners as the key element of any prospective peace deal.
Zelenskyy has emphasized the need for a comprehensive agreement, not a temporary halt to hostilities that would only allow Russia to replenish its arsenal. He has pushed for the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers.
Putin has similarly rejected a temporary truce, pointing out that Russian troops are pressing an offensive and any break in the fighting would allow Ukraine to get reinforcements and supplies.
“The Russians are seeing that Trump is going to push for some kind of resolution or some kind of settlement, and they want to grab as much as they can,” said Kurt Volker, who served as special representative for Ukraine in Trump's first term.
Russia controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula that was annexed illegally in 2014. It held the battlefield initiative for most of 2024, pressing offensives in several sections of the over 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line. Moscow’s gains in the fall were the largest since the opening stage of the invasion.
Ukraine has faced dire manpower shortages as it struggles to mobilize enough recruits to compensate for its losses and increasing desertions.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow with Carnegie Endowment, observed that “stabilizing the front line is essential to buying time and forcing Moscow to reassess.” He noted that Ukraine’s mobilization rates fell considerably since summer and “manning levels continued to decline, especially among infantry units holding the front lines.”
Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev noted that even though Russia lacks resources for a major breakthrough, it has refined the tactic of small-scale, slow advances in multiple sectors.
“Moscow is betting on the physical exhaustion of the Ukrainian armed forces and the Ukrainian state’s meltdown,” Poletaev wrote recently.
Kyiv sought to change its fortunes by launching an incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August, aiming to distract Moscow's forces in eastern Ukraine and strengthen its hand in negotiations. Russia, initially caught by surprise, intensified efforts to drive out the Ukrainian forces. The U.S., Ukraine and South Korea said North Korea sent 10,000- 12,000 troops to Russia to fight in the Kursk region.
Kellogg, the new administration's nominee for Ukraine envoy, dismissed European fears that Trump could reduce support for Kyiv, saying “he’s not trying to give something to Putin or to the Russians, he’s actually trying to save Ukraine and save their sovereignty.”
Volker predicted Trump would urge Putin to end hostilities and warn him that he would sharply increase pressure on Moscow if the Russian leader fails to heed the demand.
If Putin refuses to halt the fighting, Volker said Trump would “open up the spigot” and allow Ukraine to borrow as much money as it wants and buy whatever military equipment it wants while toughening sanctions on Russian oil and gas sector.
“I think those things would be aimed at driving Putin to conclude, ‘OK, it’s time to stop,’” Volker said.
Other observers warn that Putin would be unlikely to compromise on his war goals, particularly while Russian troops have the upper hand in Ukraine, and the Russian economy has so far survived ongoing Western sanctions.
While seeking to cement his gains and win Western guarantees that Ukraine will never be invited to join NATO, Putin also wants Kyiv to accept a set of language, education and cultural policies to ensure its friendly policies toward Moscow.
“Putin has tied his war to achieving this and is unlikely to retreat,” Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary. “Instead, he will likely intensify efforts.”
She added that Russia’s demand for Ukraine’s “demilitarization” implies not only deep cuts in its armed forces but also seeks Western guarantees it won't rearm its ally.
“Moscow views any military support for Ukraine as inherently hostile,” she said.
Putin is unlikely to walk back his annexation of the four Ukrainian regions, a seizure that already has been written into the Russian constitution.
“Moscow believes that a recognition of Russia’s new borders by Ukraine is necessary to preclude the basis for a military revanche,” political analyst Vladimir Frolov said in a commentary.
Many Moscow analysts are skeptical of prospects for a peace deal, noting the widely divergent positions on both sides. Some say a failure in the talks could put Russia and the U.S. on the brink of a direct conflict if Trump decides to ramp up military support for Ukraine.
“They tend to think in the West that Putin will get scared and agree to a ceasefire,” wrote Poletaev, the Moscow-based analyst. “Just the opposite. Putin will likely opt for an escalation and fight fire with fire."
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Associated Press writer Danica Kirka in London contributed.
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