As the first portion of the NBA season unfolds, each week we will highlight a handful of make-or-break players who will determine their teams' fortunes, for better or worse. Before Christmas, you will have a full rundown of each team's bellwether, so you can ride the ups and downs of the rest of the season with them.
The first five make-or-break players: Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat • Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder • Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks • Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers • Julius Randle, New York Knicks
The second: Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks • Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks • Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves • Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets • Andrew Wiggins, Golden State Warriors
The third: Santi Aldama, Memphis Grizzlies • Sam Hauser, Boston Celtics • Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers • Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic • Coby White, Chicago Bulls
Last week: Bradley Beal, Phoenix Suns • Dyson Daniels, New Orleans Pelicans • Terance Mann, Los Angeles Clippers • Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers • Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
This week ...
Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets
As it was becoming clear that the fit between Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid — at the time a point guard with no jump shot and a center who took too many 3-pointers — was less than ideal for the Philadelphia 76ers, we wondered: What if Simmons had his own team, surrounded by floor spacers? He should in Brooklyn, where he has played 87% of his possessions without a non-shooting center on the court. Throw him in a lineup with, say, Mikal Bridges, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Thomas and Spencer Dinwiddie, and the Nets should be pretty good. And they are, outscoring opponents by 23 in 48 minutes with that five-man unit.
Except, Simmons is such a scoring non-factor and so afraid of contact that the Nets have had no choice but to move him off the ball, and then he just eats space. He has taken six shots outside of 5 feet and made one. Almost all of his 36 field-goal attempts on the season have been transition (8-11 FG), alley-oop (4-6 FG) or put-back (4-8 FG) dunks or layups. A drive into the middle of the paint for an awkward hook shot is really his only scoring move with the ball, if it is a move at all. He has made just three of them on eight tries.
As a result, Brooklyn's offense flips from the equivalent of a bottom-10 outfit with Simmons on-court (111.5 points per 100 possessions) to a top-five unit when he is on the bench (118.4 points per 100 possessions).
Simmons also cannot stay on the floor. He rested in the sixth game of the season on the second night of a back-to-back for "maintenance" of the same lower back injury that cost him half of last season. He returned for one game and has not seen the floor since, missing the last 13 games with hip soreness, which is caused by a nerve impingement in his lower back. The injury will not be reevaluated until mid-December.
This is hardly breaking news, but his is truly one of the strangest careers in NBA history. From ages 22-24, Simmons made three straight All-Star appearances, two All-Defensive first teams and an All-NBA third team. Three years later, he may be the least skilled scorer in the league. We can debate whether his anguish is more mental or physical, but it is disheartening to see someone so big and athletic nosedive in his prime.
His 10.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game in limited usage are encouraging enough to believe All-NBA talent still lurks somewhere inside his chiseled 6-foot-10 frame. Imagine that version of him — the one that pressures the rim, draws the defense and sees the entire court — setting the table for Bridges, Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson and whichever other wing might round out a nightmarish defensive quintet. The Nets could be really good, if only their highest-paid player played the way that earned him a maximum contract.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
I say Murray here mostly because his health is the biggest current threat to the Nuggets being able to field their starting lineup when it matters most. Murray, Nikola Jokić, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. outscored opponents by 9.4 points per 100 possessions in 376 minutes throughout the playoffs last season, and they have generated a 121.9 offensive rating so far this season — just absurd.
Christian Braun is giving them just about everything Bruce Brown did off the bench last season, averaging 15.5 points (on 48/40/73 shooting splits), 7.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per 36 minutes. They are still waiting on Zeke Nnaji to reliably replace Jeff Green, but there should be options on the trade or buyout markets. For all intents and purposes, the Nuggets have what they need on the roster to repeat as NBA champions.
They will not without Murray and Jokić's two-man game. Jokić is an obvious make-or-break player, too, but he is (knock on wood) a cyborg whose ground-bound game makes him less prone to injury. Murray, on the other hand, missed the entire 2021-22 campaign while rehabbing a torn ACL. He used last season to play his way into peak form, thankfully reverting to the playoff god he was prior to the knee injury. He strained his right hamstring seven games into this season, and nobody in Denver needs reminding that Murray's ACL tear in his left knee came 33 minutes into his return from a four-game absence for right knee soreness.
There is always a concern about overcompensation once injuries mount. Only 22 minutes into his return from a hamstring injury, Murray sprained his right ankle. Two injuries can have nothing to do with each other, but you worry about a point guard whose game is so reliant on the torque he generates with his lower body and who has missed 45% of his games in the last five years. He returned again on Wednesday, playing 29 minutes of a 111-102 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Nuggets were +2 in those minutes.
Please tread carefully, because every champion deserves its title defense, and there is none without Murray.
Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings
The Kings could have created significant cap space this past summer and instead opted to re-sign Barnes to a three-year, $54 million contract, even after his minutes were cut to less than 15 in the last two games of their first-round playoff series loss to the Golden State Warriors. Barnes is back in the starting lineup as a floor-spacing four, and that has contributed to Sacramento's stagnation as a sub-contention playoff team.
Barnes has been a veteran steward of the Kings' rise from perennial lottery fodder, but his role in their offense continues to be diminished, and at 31 years old his defense is not what it was when he arrived at the 2019 trade deadline. Since a 33-point outburst in an opening-night blowout of the Utah Jazz, Barnes is averaging 10.7 points per game on 34.9% 3-point shooting. More than that, though, his inconsistency is a serious concern. Watch no more than his disappearing act in a four-point performance over 34 minutes of Sacramento's in-season tournament quarterfinal loss to the New Orleans Pelicans to understand its gravity.
While Barnes contributed to Sacramento's successful defense against Zion Williamson in defeat, Kings head coach Mike Brown told reporters afterwards, "The one thing you guys have to understand is I don't call any plays for HB. Everything he does, he kind of gets off of others, and so that's going to bring an amount of inconsistency." Plenty of players do not have plays designed for them, but they manage to find a level of consistency (i.e., 25-year-old Grant Williams, who earned $53 million over four years in free agency).
As Keegan Murray's role on the wing grows alongside Kevin Huerter in an offense that features De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, that fifth starting spot needs to be an elite defender, and Barnes is not that now. If he cannot be that guy again, the Kings must look outside the roster for an upgrade. They have all of their own first-round draft picks, except for their 2024 selection, and some intriguing young players — Davion Mitchell, Chris Duarte and Keon Ellis, to name a few — to package with Barnes' contract. Is that enough to pry either OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors? The Kings should hope so.
Kelly Oubre Jr., Philadelphia 76ers
The circumstances surrounding Oubre's monthlong absence from the Sixers for injuries he said he suffered as a pedestrian victim of a hit-and-run car accident make for one of the NBA season's strangest subplots. It is not every day a player feels compelled to address "conspiracy theorists" upon his return from injury.
Thankfully, Oubre made his return to the lineup on Wednesday, and Philadelphia sure could use the guy who averaged 16.3 points per game on 50/38/79 shooting splits in his first eight appearances for the team. He played his way into the starting lineup four games into the season and was wildly outperforming the veteran minimum contract he signed over the summer, when teams were not exactly lining up to pay him. Oubre came off the bench in Wednesday's return to action, scoring 12 points on eight shots in 19 minutes.
Oubre has not contributed to a playoff team since 2018, his second season. He is on his fifth team in nine years, and that 38% clip from 3 would be the highest of his career by a long shot. His success in a small sample size was encouraging for a Sixers team that needs help on the wing, where Clippers castoffs (and expiring contracts) Robert Covington, Nic Batum and Marcus Morris have each started in Oubre's absence.
The Sixers started 7-1, owners of the league's second-best net rating (+12.7 points per 100 meaningful possessions, per Cleaning the Glass) in Oubre's first eight games in uniform. The on/off numbers for Oubre were not so kind, but his value is reflected in their 5-6 record and slimmer +2.5 net rating in his absence.
You can bet Sixers executive Daryl Morey is trying to flip the expiring contracts and draft picks he received in exchange for James Harden last month to acquire a starrier fit between Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Can Oubre stretch that small sample size for consistent production in the meantime — or all year, if Morey fails in pursuit of a star? Either way, by season's end, the role Oubre returned to will decide Philadelphia's fate.
Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards
You might think the 3-17 Wizards, who have not sniffed the playoffs since 2021, would find more than 26 minutes and six shots a night for Coulibaly, the No. 7 overall draft pick, especially since he is shooting 41.2% from 3 and 61.2% on 2s. They are also 9.9 points per 100 possessions better when he is playing.
Instead, the Wizards have handed the keys to Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma, two quality role players from championship teams who have convinced themselves that true leadership is padding their own statistics.
Poole, in particular, has a stranglehold on the Wizards that is concerning, given hisapparentapathy. He is shooting 40.4% from the field and 29.8% from 3, and that is after a 10-for-16 performance in Wednesday's five-point loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. He is the least efficient scorer (46.7 effective field-goal percentage) of any NBA regular with a usage rate of 25% or higher. This is an obstacle to everyone else's development.
And everything the Wizards do should be focused on fostering Coulibaly's growth. He is the third-youngest player in the NBA and already a solid defender. He has great instincts, and that translates offensively, where his quickness and agility have made for some impressive playmaking opportunities in the few chances he has been given to create. There is a star in that 6-foot-6 frame (and 7-foot-2 wingspan!), and Washington desperately needs to discover it. What better way to spend a season so clearly headed for another lottery.
So, why is Coulibaly 15th among Wizards in usage rate? Tyus Jones is easily the Wizards' best table-setter, and he cannot share a backcourt with Poole. They make no sense together, and their -17.6 net rating as a tandem reflects what should be obvious. Washington has played 1,938 meaningful possessions this season, according to Cleaning the Glass, and Coulibaly has shared the court with Jones and without Poole for just 178 (9.2%) of them. That is inexcusable. Coulibaly's usage in those lineups is 17.7%. Add Poole, and that figure dips to 12.3%. Remove Jones, and Coulibaly's usage next to Poole drops to 9.9%.
What are we doing here? Poole is not the answer to Washington's problems. Coulibaly might be. The Wizards should start acting accordingly. They might still be terrible, but at least there is hope for the future.
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