Donald Trump won the presidency (again). Republicans won the Senate. But there’s one more big political prize to be awarded after Tuesday’s election: the House of Representatives, which could still break either way depending on what happens in the roughly 28 races that remain too close to call as of Thursday afternoon.
How many of these seats — the vast majority of them concentrated in slower-counting Western states such as California, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada — does each party need for a 218-seat majority? So far, Democrats have won 197 seats; Republicans have won 210. If Democrats were to win all of the remaining districts where their candidate is ahead, even narrowly, they would end up with 212 seats. Republicans would end up with 223 — and continued control of the House.
But nearly half the vote remains uncounted in some places, and eight races are currently showing leads of 1 percentage point or less. So things could change.
As America awaits the House call, it's worth gaming out both scenarios. What would it mean for Trump's second term if he secures a so-called trifecta — the presidency, the Senate and the House? On the other hand, what would it mean if Democrats flip the lower chamber of Congress?
There are some big differences.
If Democrats win the House…
Republicans will have at least 52 seats in the next Senate. With that majority, they’ll be able to confirm all of Trump’s judicial nominees regardless of what happens in the House, including younger Supreme Court justices who could ensure a conservative majority for decades to come. They’ll be able to confirm Trump’s Cabinet officials as well.
But if Democrats control the House — and remain unified — they could block Trump’s Senate allies from passing any laws they deem objectionable. This could include efforts to restrict or even repeal the Affordable Care Act; expand oil and gas drilling; extend tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans; and slash taxes for corporations.
Trump’s presidency will end the multiple criminal cases brought against him, at least for the four years he occupies the Oval Office. But a Democratic House would be able to continue investigating the Trump administration the way they did from 2019 to 2023 (when they probed Trump’s allies’ ties to Russian interference in the 2016 election and scheme to overturn his 2020 loss). House Democrats impeached Trump twice during this period, and they could do so again. But a Republican Senate would almost certainly keep voting against conviction and removal from office.
If Republicans win the House…
During the 2024 campaign, Trump focused less on his congressional agenda than on things he could do on his own — imposing huge tariffs on foreign goods, deporting millions of immigrants, rethinking America’s commitment to NATO and allowing Russia to annex parts of Ukraine.
So Trump will have the power to implement any or all those policies regardless of what happens in the House.
Unified control of Congress would allow Republicans to chair committees, launch investigations and, mostly importantly, pass legislation. How much legislation — and how far that legislation will go — would depend on the size of their majorities, the composition of their leadership and the ambition of Trump himself.
For instance, the GOP would likely try to pass tax cuts for wealthy Americans and corporations without any Democratic support. How? Through a process called budget reconciliation that only requires 51 Senate votes for measures related to taxes and spending. Republicans could possibly unravel the ACA and crack down on the border through reconciliation as well — ideas that senators such as Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are already discussing. Trump also wants to eliminate the tax on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits for seniors.
Yet any policies that don’t involve taxes and spending still need a filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes to pass — and Republicans won’t have 60 votes.
One big question, then, is whether Republicans would eventually push to end the legislative filibuster (after previously deciding to end its judicial counterpart). So far, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said the filibuster is “very secure.” But McConnell also plans to make way for a new majority leader when the Senate is sworn in next year. Will his replacement feel as protective of the filibuster — especially under pressure from Trump and MAGA lawmakers who are eager for sweeping change?
If not, and if the filibuster falls, there would be little to stop a GOP trifecta from implementing Trump’s most controversial plans. During Trump’s first term, conservatives such as House Speaker Paul Ryan checked the president’s ambitions; recently, House Republicans have struggled to keep their narrow majority unified amid challenges from the hard-right Freedom Caucus. But with Trump back in the White House, and Republicans in charge of the Senate, a Republican House would be more emboldened — and united — than before.
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